Assume that Jones Co. will need to purchase 100,000 Singapore dollars (S$) in 180 days. Today's spot rate of the S$ is $.50, and the 180-day forward rate is $.53. A call option on S$ exists, with an exercise price of $.52, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. A put option on S$ exists, with an exercise price of $.51, a premium of $.02, and a 180-day expiration date. Jones has developed the following probability distribution for the spot rate in 180 days:

Possible Spot Rate in 90 Days Probability
$.48 10%
$.53 60%
$.55 30%

The probability that the forward hedge will result in a higher payment than the options hedge is ____

Based on the information given we were told that the Possible Spot Rate in 90 Days is $.48 while the Probability is 10% which means that the Probability that call option won't be exercised is 10% which will inturn enables Jones to pay the amount of $48,000($.48*$100,000) reason been that it is much lower than the amount of $53,000($.53*$100,000) that was paid been with the forward hedge.

Therefore The probability that the forward hedge will result in a higher payment than the options hedge is 10%